Minerals, Encryption and Awkward meetings

Hi ZipLawyer! Welcome to our weekly news roundup, covering all the stories you need to know in brief.

Semiconductor Disruptions

China recently tightened its existing export controls on minerals such as gallium, antimony and germanium by banning their export to the US. The updated rules will require countries exporting goods which contain gallium (btw China controls about 98% of its global supply) to the US to acquire an export license from Beijing. 

Japan – the world’s largest consumer of these minerals – has expressed particular concern over the rules since Japanese producers of cars, semiconductors, phones etc., will potentially need to comply with the Chinese export controls. 

Japanese officials and companies have also flagged the near impossibility of tracing gallium in the global supply chain to comply with Beijing’s rules. China’s retaliation against Trump’s 10% increase in tariffs on its goods has meant an addition of more critical minerals to the list. 

End of end-to-end encryption!

Apple will no longer be providing Advanced Data Protection (ADP) for iCloud in Britain i.e. users’ data stored in its servers will no longer be ‘end-to-end encrypted’. 

Why? In January 2025, Apple was served with a ‘Technical Capability Notice’ under the UK Investigatory Powers Act, which has been recently amended and has the aim of investigating terrorism and child sexual abuse. The law has extraterritorial jurisdiction which enables UK officials to access data from other countries as well. It has inevitably faced scrutiny due to its global implications for privacy and data protection. 

Apple is also being criticised for completely withdrawing the feature instead of complying with the demand to create a ‘backdoor’ for data access when required, but it has stuck to its decision against this and itself does not have access to fully encrypted user data. This means Apple can now share data (which has standard encryption) with law enforcement on receiving a warrant – something which was not possible with ADP in place. 

Uncertainty: The Only Certainty? 

To add to the woes of the shipping industry, which has seen a surge in costs due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the war in Ukraine, the uncertainty created by Trump’s foreign policy is dissuading oil traders from signing long-term charters for tankers and weakening the demand for tankers and vessels.

Long-term agreements provide shipowners and charterers with stability and certainty regarding their income and the cost of transportation. Uncertainty about Trump’s moves means that market players are less confident to commit to long-term contracts due to the fear of sudden fluctuations in the global market.

Trump’s tariffs on China could also suppress oil demand and resultantly further reduce the demand for tankers. On the other hand, tariffs on crude oil imports from Mexico and Canada and Trump’s emphasis on exporting US oil could lead to a realignment of trade relations and increased shipments to other countries. 

No More Free-Passes for Greenhouse Gas Emissions 

Currently, the UK government allows producers to emit certain amounts of greenhouse gasses for free under the Emissions Trading Scheme to facilitate equitable competition with companies based in countries with less stringent regimes. Without these carbon allowances, the steel industry will see its carbon costs rise drastically, and thus, recent plans to remove the allowances have put the industry in panic mode. The government is in a consultation phase and has indicated plans to remove these and introduce a carbon border tax from 2027. Steel manufacturers are under immense pressure to reduce their emissions and are looking to invest in greener alternatives, like electric arc furnaces, with government support. 

Pause on Cobalt Exports 

The Democratic Republic of Congo – the world’s largest producer of cobalt – is planning on temporarily suspending the export of cobalt. This is being done in the hopes of combating the plummeting cobalt prices due to oversupply in the global market. Prominent producers of cobalt in DR Congo, including Glencore (LSE listed) and CMOC (China listed), will be adversely affected by the measure. Cobalt is also an essential element in batteries for electric vehicles. If the export restriction is effectively enforced and cobalt prices see an upward trend, it may lead to an increase in the manufacturing costs for EV manufacturers. 

BP Loses Faith in Green Energy

“Oil and gas will be needed for decades to come” said Murray Auchincloss, Chief Executive of BP as he announced the oil major’s decision to take a step back from its energy transition goals and one step towards increasing fossil fuel production. This has been a result of unsatisfactory returns from its green energy projects and investors’ opposition – especially from activist investor, Elliot Management. BP plans on launching new projects to expand oil production and sell some of its assets, as it seeks to rapidly reduce its costs and debt. 

Trump’s Next Target: Chinese Ships 

Since taking office, Trump has been ‘on a roll’ with his executive orders and has now rolled over to ships – Chinese ones to be specific. His administration has proposed plans to impose a fee on Chinese-built commercial vessels that enter US ports and on operators who have orders with Chinese shipyards. The measure aims to counter China’s dominance in shipbuilding and address the US’ weak performance in the market. This will likely lead to arise in costs for Chinese shipbuilders as well as manufacturers who use Chinese-built vessels to transport goods globally. South Korea and Japan may benefit from this if traders of goods and buyers of ships move away from Chinese vessels since the countries are next in line in terms of shipping market dominance.

We're keeping an eye on

• Diplomatic disaster: Zelensky’s White House visit turned into a diplomatic disaster. A heated clash with Trump and VP J.D. Vance saw the Ukrainian leader accused of ingratitude and risking WWIII. Trump hinted at cutting U.S. aid, while European leaders rushed to show support. Moscow celebrated. The fallout leaves Ukraine’s war effort—and Zelensky’s leadership—on shaky ground.
• Ofcom’s Upcoming Guidelines for Tech Firms: The regulator, Ofcom, is set to publish guidelines for tech firms concerning misogyny, harassment and deepfakes by the end of 2025. While these will not be legally binding, the regime will involve public disclosure of non-compliance by social media platforms to keep users informed.
• Artists vs. AI: There is an increasing rift between artists and tech companies over the use of copyrighted materials. British artists – including Hanz Zimmer, Paul McCartney, and Elton John — are protesting against government proposals to implement an opt-out model instead of an opt-in one. The former would make it easier for AI tools to use copyrighted material without adequate compensation to artists.
• No Tariffs on the UK (Maybe): In a recent press conference with Kier Starmer, President Trump indicated that the UK might evade tariffs if a UK-US deal is finalised. The deal will focus on economic and technological advancement. However, things are looking rough for Mexico and Canada, which will be subjected to tariffs effective the fourth of March. Trump has also indicated an additional ten per cent increase in tariffs on China (on top of the existing ten per cent increase).

Term of the Week: Loan to Value

Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio is like the size of a mortgage compared to the value of a house. It measures how much of an asset’s value is being borrowed versus how much is paid upfront. For example, if you buy a £200,000 house with a £150,000 mortgage, your LTV is 75%. A higher LTV means more borrowing and risk for the lender, while a lower LTV shows a bigger down payment and less reliance on debt.

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