Trade Wars

Hi ZipLawyer! Today’s Memo:

🇺🇸 Trump starts trade wars
🇪🇺 EU, UK discuss defence spend
🛢️ Oil demand..won't drop?
💊 Bird & Bird, Bristows lead on IP Dispute
📊 Freshfields, Davis Polk head IPO
🙋 What are derivatives?

Trump Tariffs (continued..)

What did you do this weekend? Chilled Sunday, seen some friends? Well, Trump instead decided to start trade wars by announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Here's what happened:

• US Imposed 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico plus 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.

How did they respond?

• Canada: Announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on C$155 billion ($106B) worth of US goods (e.g. food, beverages, appliances, lumber, and paper products).
• Mexico: Promised payback, but exact measures are yet to be detailed.
• China: Vowed "corresponding countermeasures" and filed a legal complaint at the WTO against the US tariffs.
• EU: Trump said the EU is next so they're preparing for whatever is headed their way.

Defence in Focus

EU leaders, Keir Starmer, and NATO’s Mark Rutte are eyeing a "coalition of the willing" to boost European defence, sidestepping neutral states and pro-Russian Hungary & Slovakia. But with a €500bn funding gap, the real battle is over who foots the bill. The UK and Germany want homegrown defence production, while others suggest buying US weapons to appease Trump. Norway, fearing tariffs in a US-EU trade spat, is cosying up to Brussels. Meanwhile, Poland and the Baltics push for big spending, but Italy, Spain, and Germany resist EU-wide borrowing. No grand announcements yet, but today’s talks will shape a defence plan due this spring.

Won't Drop

The world’s largest independent energy trader, Vitol, predicts global oil demand will hold steady at current levels until 2040, challenging forecasts from the International Energy Agency and BP. In its first-ever long-term demand outlook, Vitol expects consumption to peak at 110 million barrels per day by the decade’s end before settling at 105 million b/d in 2040. While petrol demand is projected to decline—especially in China due to EV adoption—rising needs for petrochemicals and LPG will offset the drop. The bullish forecast aligns with Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance and underscores Vitol’s confidence in oil’s resilience.

Bird & Bird, Bristows lead on IP Dispute